What is EVG.L's Intrinsic value?

Evgen Pharma PLC (EVG.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 21, 2025, Evgen Pharma PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.72 to $1.72 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $1.72 +220.8%

Is Evgen Pharma PLC (EVG.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.54, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Evgen Pharma PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.7% 4.2%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.52 0.81
Cost of equity 6.9% 10.4%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 15.2% 16.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 5.6% 7.3%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $0M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.3% - 5.6%
Enterprise Value $3M - $4M
Net Debt $(4)M
Equity Value $7M - $8M
Outstanding Shares 4M
Fair Value $2 - $2
Selected Fair Value $1.72

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2M
Enterprise Value $-1M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 12.80
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.95

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $0.17
Weighted Average 100% $1.72

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Evgen Pharma PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.72, which is approximately 220.8% above the current market price of $0.54.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-915% to -481% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Evgen Pharma PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.