What is EVER's DCF valuation?

EverQuote Inc (EVER) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, EverQuote Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $33.49 per share. With the current market price at $15.18, this represents a potential upside of 120.6%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $28.19
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $33.49
Potential Upside (5-year) 85.7%
Potential Upside (10-year) 120.6%
Discount Rate (WACC) 6.9% - 8.7%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $693 million in 12-2025 to $1196 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.6%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 693 38%
12-2026 724 4%
12-2027 765 6%
12-2028 782 2%
12-2029 825 5%
12-2030 883 7%
12-2031 957 8%
12-2032 1015 6%
12-2033 1061 5%
12-2034 1131 7%
12-2035 1196 6%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 14% in 12-2025 to 8% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 99 14%
12-2026 61 8%
12-2027 65 8%
12-2028 66 8%
12-2029 70 8%
12-2030 75 8%
12-2031 81 8%
12-2032 86 8%
12-2033 90 8%
12-2034 96 8%
12-2035 101 8%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 5
12-2027 5
12-2028 6
12-2029 7
12-2030 7
12-2031 8

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 37
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 925

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 66 3 7 24 32
2027 70 4 7 (4) 63
2028 72 4 7 (5) 65
2029 76 4 8 6 58
2030 82 4 8 (1) 70

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 6.9% - 8.7%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 0.0% - 1.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 11.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 28.19 85.7%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 33.49 120.6%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 27.26 79.6%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 32.74 115.7%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $844M
  • 10-Year Model: $1,035M

Investment Conclusion

Is EverQuote Inc (EVER) a buy or a sell? EverQuote Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, EverQuote Inc (EVER) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 120.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (5.6% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $15.18.