What is EVE.SW's Intrinsic value?

Evolva Holding SA (EVE.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 28, 2025, Evolva Holding SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.52 to $1.81 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1.52 +14.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1.81 +36.3%

Is Evolva Holding SA (EVE.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.33, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Evolva Holding SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 1.08 1.39
Cost of equity 6.5% 10.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 16.8% 18.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.94 1.94
After-tax WACC 4.9% 6.3%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $1.52 (14.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.5% (Low) to 6.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $1 to $3
  • Selected fair value: $1.81 (36.3% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $10M
Enterprise Value $3M
Trailing P/E 9.21
Forward P/E 8.94
Trailing EV/EBITDA 18.40
Current Dividend Yield 62.96%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.94

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $0.30
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $0.27
Weighted Average 100% $1.65

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Evolva Holding SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $1.65, which is approximately 23.9% above the current market price of $1.33.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-2532% to -2460% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Evolva Holding SA is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.