What is EUZ.DE's Intrinsic value?

Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG (EUZ.DE) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 14, 2025, Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $20.90 to $45.95 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $45.95 -29.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $36.81 -43.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $35.07 -46.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $34.68 -46.9%
Earnings Power Value $20.90 -68.0%

Is Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG (EUZ.DE) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $65.35, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.8% 3.3%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.86 1.04
Cost of equity 7.2% 10.1%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 29.2% 30.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.04 0.04
After-tax WACC 7.0% 9.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $296 (FY12-2024) to $604 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 14% to 14%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 10% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $37 $714M 80.2%
10-Year Growth $46 $908M 66.3%
5-Year EBITDA $47 $922M 84.7%
10-Year EBITDA $53 $1,049M 70.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $35.07 (-46.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.1% (Low) to 7.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $15 to $54
  • Selected fair value: $34.68 (-46.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $31M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.9% - 7.0%
Enterprise Value $314M - $441M
Net Debt $(65)M
Equity Value $379M - $506M
Outstanding Shares 21M
Fair Value $18 - $24
Selected Fair Value $20.90

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1383M
Enterprise Value $1319M
Trailing P/E 40.12
Forward P/E 31.24
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.95
Current Dividend Yield 7.50%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -41.26%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.04

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $13.78
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $9.20
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $7.01
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $5.20
Earnings Power Value 10% $2.09
Weighted Average 100% $37.29

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $37.29, which is approximately 42.9% below the current market price of $65.35.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (14% to 14% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.04)

Given these factors, we believe Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen und Medizintechnik AG is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.