What is ETX.L's DCF valuation?

E-Therapeutics PLC (ETX.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 27, 2025, E-Therapeutics PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $9.00, this represents a potential upside of -1052.3%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -759.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1052.3%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.7% - 7.9%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
01-2023 0 0%
01-2024 1 5%
01-2025 1 16%
01-2026 1 13%
01-2027 1 12%
01-2028 1 14%
01-2029 1 12%
01-2030 1 11%
01-2031 1 14%
01-2032 1 10%
01-2033 1 12%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1742% in 01-2023 to -1696% by 01-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
01-2023 (8) -1742%
01-2024 (8) -849%
01-2025 (10) -988%
01-2026 (11) -1115%
01-2027 (12) -1244%
01-2028 (14) -1419%
01-2029 (16) -1596%
01-2030 (18) -1696%
01-2031 (20) -1696%
01-2032 (22) -1696%
01-2033 (25) -1696%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 67% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
01-2024 0
01-2025 0
01-2026 0
01-2027 0
01-2028 0
01-2029 1

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 0
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2024 (10) (2) 0 0 (9)
2025 (12) (2) 0 0 (10)
2026 (14) (2) 0 0 (12)
2027 (15) (3) 0 0 (13)
2028 (18) (3) 1 0 (15)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.7% - 7.9%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 14.0x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -759.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1052.3%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(403)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(568)M

Investment Conclusion

Is E-Therapeutics PLC (ETX.L) a buy or a sell? E-Therapeutics PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, E-Therapeutics PLC (ETX.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1052.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1742% to -1696%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $9.00.