As of May 23, 2025, Eutelsat Communications SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.25, this represents a potential upside of -835.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -800.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -835.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1213 million in 06-2024 to $1737 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 1213 | 7% |
| 06-2025 | 1281 | 6% |
| 06-2026 | 1312 | 2% |
| 06-2027 | 1364 | 4% |
| 06-2028 | 1394 | 2% |
| 06-2029 | 1472 | 6% |
| 06-2030 | 1515 | 3% |
| 06-2031 | 1552 | 2% |
| 06-2032 | 1622 | 5% |
| 06-2033 | 1703 | 5% |
| 06-2034 | 1737 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -24% in 06-2024 to -21% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | (287) | -24% |
| 06-2025 | (283) | -22% |
| 06-2026 | (286) | -22% |
| 06-2027 | (292) | -21% |
| 06-2028 | (294) | -21% |
| 06-2029 | (306) | -21% |
| 06-2030 | (314) | -21% |
| 06-2031 | (321) | -21% |
| 06-2032 | (335) | -21% |
| 06-2033 | (351) | -21% |
| 06-2034 | (357) | -21% |
with a 5-year average of $249 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 21% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 258 |
| 06-2026 | 276 |
| 06-2027 | 297 |
| 06-2028 | 314 |
| 06-2029 | 282 |
| 06-2030 | 292 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 80 |
| Days Inventory | 100 |
| Days Payables | 557 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 19 | (22) | 133 | (1) | (91) |
| 2026 | 55 | (45) | 272 | 4 | (175) |
| 2027 | 73 | (46) | 282 | 23 | (187) |
| 2028 | 91 | (46) | 288 | 5 | (157) |
| 2029 | 51 | (48) | 305 | 17 | (222) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -800.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -835.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Eutelsat Communications SA (ETL.PA) a buy or a sell? Eutelsat Communications SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Eutelsat Communications SA (ETL.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -835.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.25.