As of May 27, 2025, Eros STX Global Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.03, this represents a potential upside of -931927.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -406836.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -931927.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 5.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $156 million in 03-2020 to $5735 million by 03-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 43.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | 156 | 42% |
| 03-2021 | 385 | 147% |
| 03-2022 | 841 | 119% |
| 03-2023 | 1116 | 33% |
| 03-2024 | 1501 | 34% |
| 03-2025 | 1988 | 32% |
| 03-2026 | 2563 | 29% |
| 03-2027 | 3241 | 26% |
| 03-2028 | 4026 | 24% |
| 03-2029 | 4880 | 21% |
| 03-2030 | 5735 | 17% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -316% in 03-2020 to -162% by 03-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | (492) | -316% |
| 03-2021 | (645) | -168% |
| 03-2022 | (1,399) | -166% |
| 03-2023 | (1,844) | -165% |
| 03-2024 | (2,462) | -164% |
| 03-2025 | (3,241) | -163% |
| 03-2026 | (4,172) | -163% |
| 03-2027 | (5,268) | -163% |
| 03-2028 | (6,537) | -162% |
| 03-2029 | (7,914) | -162% |
| 03-2030 | (9,287) | -162% |
with a 5-year average of $164 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 69% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2021 | 174 |
| 03-2022 | 255 |
| 03-2023 | 371 |
| 03-2024 | 556 |
| 03-2025 | 804 |
| 03-2026 | 1104 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 290 |
| Days Inventory | 1 |
| Days Payables | 66 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | (512) | (308) | 133 | 93 | (429) |
| 2022 | (2,341) | (1,336) | 579 | 278 | (1,863) |
| 2023 | (3,050) | (1,761) | 769 | 175 | (2,233) |
| 2024 | (4,009) | (2,351) | 1034 | 294 | (2,986) |
| 2025 | (5,203) | (3,095) | 1370 | 313 | (3,792) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -406836.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -931927.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Eros STX Global Corp (ESGC) a buy or a sell? Eros STX Global Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Eros STX Global Corp (ESGC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -931927.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.03.