What is ERM.L's Intrinsic value?

Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC (ERM.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $437.84 to $2988.40 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1232.47 -15.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1006.54 -31.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $939.67 -35.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $437.84 -70.0%
Earnings Power Value $2988.40 +104.7%

Is Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC (ERM.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1460.00, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.33 0.4
Cost of equity 6.0% 7.8%
Cost of debt 4.6% 4.6%
Tax rate 19.0% 31.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.04 0.04
After-tax WACC 5.9% 7.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $336 (FY09-2021) to $618 (FY09-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 4% to 8%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,007 $1,148M 89.0%
10-Year Growth $1,232 $1,395M 79.4%
5-Year EBITDA $359 $439M 71.3%
10-Year EBITDA $506 $600M 52.2%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 217.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $939.67 (-35.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.8% (Low) to 6.0% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $121 to $755
  • Selected fair value: $437.84 (-70.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $221M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.6% - 5.9%
Enterprise Value $2,896M - $3,739M
Net Debt $46M
Equity Value $2,849M - $3,692M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $2,603 - $3,373
Selected Fair Value $2988.40

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1598M
Enterprise Value $1644M
Trailing P/E 176.44
Forward P/E 67.26
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.40
Current Dividend Yield 123.03%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -11.56%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.04

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $369.74
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $251.64
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $187.93
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $65.68
Earnings Power Value 10% $298.84
Weighted Average 100% $1173.83

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $1173.83, which is approximately 19.6% below the current market price of $1460.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (4% to 8% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.04)

Given these factors, we believe Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.