As of June 14, 2025, Erin Energy Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.00, this represents a potential upside of -2680951154.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -2679539433.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -2680951154.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 3.9% - 6.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $101 million in 12-2017 to $211 million by 12-2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2017 | 101 | 30% |
| 12-2018 | 107 | 5% |
| 12-2019 | 116 | 9% |
| 12-2020 | 128 | 11% |
| 12-2021 | 138 | 8% |
| 12-2022 | 150 | 8% |
| 12-2023 | 159 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 175 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 183 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 192 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 211 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -151% in 12-2017 to -95% by 12-2027, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2017 | (153) | -151% |
| 12-2018 | (114) | -107% |
| 12-2019 | (121) | -104% |
| 12-2020 | (130) | -102% |
| 12-2021 | (137) | -99% |
| 12-2022 | (145) | -97% |
| 12-2023 | (153) | -96% |
| 12-2024 | (167) | -96% |
| 12-2025 | (175) | -95% |
| 12-2026 | (183) | -95% |
| 12-2027 | (199) | -95% |
with a 5-year average of $59 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 90% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2018 | 78 |
| 12-2019 | 73 |
| 12-2020 | 79 |
| 12-2021 | 100 |
| 12-2022 | 114 |
| 12-2023 | 124 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 22 |
| Days Inventory | 24 |
| Days Payables | 1,001 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | (55) | (42) | 95 | 43 | (152) |
| 2019 | (67) | (45) | 104 | (16) | (110) |
| 2020 | (71) | (48) | 114 | (20) | (118) |
| 2021 | (58) | (51) | 124 | 3 | (134) |
| 2022 | (51) | (54) | 134 | (10) | (121) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2679539433.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -2680951154.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | NaN% |
Is Erin Energy Corp (ERINQ) a buy or a sell? Erin Energy Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Erin Energy Corp (ERINQ) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2680951154.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.00.