As of May 25, 2025, Equiniti Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $23.45 to $325.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $44.72 | -75.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $23.45 | -87.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $32.06 | -82.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $212.22 | +18.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $325.11 | +80.8% |
Is Equiniti Group PLC (EQN.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $179.80, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Equiniti Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.3% | 6.3% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 10.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 12.9% |
| Tax rate | 18.0% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.0% | 9.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $23 | $338M | 85.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $45 | $416M | 72.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $9 | $286M | 82.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $22 | $332M | 65.1% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $107M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.8% - 6.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,096M - $1,799M |
| Net Debt | $252M |
| Equity Value | $844M - $1,547M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4M |
| Fair Value | $229 - $421 |
| Selected Fair Value | $325.11 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $661M |
| Enterprise Value | $913M |
| Trailing P/E | 21.47 |
| Forward P/E | 20.28 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -100.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.52 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $13.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $5.86 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $6.41 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $31.83 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $32.51 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $90.03 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Equiniti Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $90.03, which is approximately 49.9% below the current market price of $179.80.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Equiniti Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.