As of May 23, 2025, Ediston Property Investment Company PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $52.64 per share. With the current market price at $68.80, this represents a potential upside of -23.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $48.59 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $52.64 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -29.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -23.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 7.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $16 million in 09-2022 to $23 million by 09-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2022 | 16 | 5% |
| 09-2023 | 18 | 12% |
| 09-2024 | 19 | 2% |
| 09-2025 | 19 | 2% |
| 09-2026 | 20 | 2% |
| 09-2027 | 20 | 2% |
| 09-2028 | 21 | 3% |
| 09-2029 | 22 | 5% |
| 09-2030 | 22 | 4% |
| 09-2031 | 23 | 2% |
| 09-2032 | 23 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 131% in 09-2022 to 106% by 09-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2022 | 21 | 131% |
| 09-2023 | 19 | 106% |
| 09-2024 | 20 | 106% |
| 09-2025 | 20 | 106% |
| 09-2026 | 21 | 106% |
| 09-2027 | 21 | 106% |
| 09-2028 | 22 | 106% |
| 09-2029 | 23 | 106% |
| 09-2030 | 24 | 106% |
| 09-2031 | 24 | 106% |
| 09-2032 | 25 | 106% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 28% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2023 | 5 |
| 09-2024 | 5 |
| 09-2025 | 6 |
| 09-2026 | 5 |
| 09-2027 | 5 |
| 09-2028 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 424 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 9 | 2 | 3 | (7) | 11 |
| 2024 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 2025 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 2026 | 19 | 5 | 5 | (3) | 12 |
| 2027 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 48.59 | -29.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 52.64 | -23.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 76.01 | 10.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 74.90 | 8.9% |
Is Ediston Property Investment Company PLC (EPIC.L) a buy or a sell? Ediston Property Investment Company PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Ediston Property Investment Company PLC (EPIC.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -23.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $68.80.