As of December 15, 2025, Ependion AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $87.59 to $230.98 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $230.98 | +108.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $164.02 | +48.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $169.13 | +52.9% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $230.60 | +108.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $87.59 | -20.8% |
Is Ependion AB (EPEN.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $110.60, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ependion AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| Cost of equity | 5.5% | 8.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 22.9% | 25.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.2% | 7.3% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $164 | $5,855M | 89.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $231 | $8,008M | 80.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $235 | $8,143M | 92.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $266 | $9,149M | 83.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $206M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.3% - 5.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,819M - $3,977M |
| Net Debt | $582M |
| Equity Value | $2,237M - $3,395M |
| Outstanding Shares | 32M |
| Fair Value | $70 - $106 |
| Selected Fair Value | $87.59 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3556M |
| Enterprise Value | $4138M |
| Trailing P/E | 25.76 |
| Forward P/E | 21.05 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 17.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 102.12% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -14.49% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.20 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $69.29 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $41.00 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $33.83 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $34.59 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $8.76 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $187.47 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ependion AB's intrinsic value is $187.47, which is approximately 69.5% above the current market price of $110.60.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Ependion AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.