What is EPEN.ST's Intrinsic value?

Ependion AB (EPEN.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Ependion AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $87.59 to $230.98 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $230.98 +108.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $164.02 +48.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $169.13 +52.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $230.60 +108.5%
Earnings Power Value $87.59 -20.8%

Is Ependion AB (EPEN.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $110.60, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Ependion AB's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.5% 3.0%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.58 0.74
Cost of equity 5.5% 8.0%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 22.9% 25.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.2 0.2
After-tax WACC 5.2% 7.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $2,258 (FY12-2024) to $4,847 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 7% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $164 $5,855M 89.4%
10-Year Growth $231 $8,008M 80.9%
5-Year EBITDA $235 $8,143M 92.4%
10-Year EBITDA $266 $9,149M 83.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 26.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $169.13 (52.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.0% (Low) to 5.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $54 to $407
  • Selected fair value: $230.60 (108.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $206M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.3% - 5.2%
Enterprise Value $2,819M - $3,977M
Net Debt $582M
Equity Value $2,237M - $3,395M
Outstanding Shares 32M
Fair Value $70 - $106
Selected Fair Value $87.59

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3556M
Enterprise Value $4138M
Trailing P/E 25.76
Forward P/E 21.05
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.30
Current Dividend Yield 102.12%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -14.49%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.20

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $69.29
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $41.00
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $33.83
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $34.59
Earnings Power Value 10% $8.76
Weighted Average 100% $187.47

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Ependion AB's intrinsic value is $187.47, which is approximately 69.5% above the current market price of $110.60.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.20)

Given these factors, we believe Ependion AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.