What is ENRO.ST's Intrinsic value?

Eniro AB (ENRO.ST) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Eniro AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.91 to $10.14 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1.73 +333.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1.63 +309.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.91 +129.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1.59 +299.8%
Earnings Power Value $10.14 +2448.0%

Is Eniro AB (ENRO.ST) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Eniro AB's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.5% 3.0%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.51 0.98
Cost of equity 5.1% 9.5%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 14.2% 24.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.08 0.08
After-tax WACC 5.0% 9.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $951 (FY12-2024) to $1,356 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 7% to 5%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2 $1,081M 75.1%
10-Year Growth $2 $1,152M 55.7%
5-Year EBITDA $1 $679M 60.3%
10-Year EBITDA $1 $835M 38.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 35.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $0.91 (129.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.5% (Low) to 5.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $1 to $2
  • Selected fair value: $1.59 (299.8% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $482M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.1% - 5.0%
Enterprise Value $5,298M - $9,564M
Net Debt $(136)M
Equity Value $5,434M - $9,700M
Outstanding Shares 746M
Fair Value $7 - $13
Selected Fair Value $10.14

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $297M
Enterprise Value $161M
Trailing P/E 3.67
Forward P/E 5.62
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.75
Current Dividend Yield 966.78%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -59.67%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $0.52
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.41
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.18
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.24
Earnings Power Value 10% $1.01
Weighted Average 100% $2.36

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Eniro AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.36, which is approximately 493.2% above the current market price of $0.40.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (7% to 5% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.08)

Given these factors, we believe Eniro AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.