As of May 31, 2025, EnQuest PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $82.95 per share. With the current market price at $11.80, this represents a potential upside of 602.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $74.66 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $82.95 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 532.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 602.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.9% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1181 million in 12-2024 to $1507 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1181 | 21% |
| 12-2025 | 1235 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 1260 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1285 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1330 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 1360 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1388 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1420 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 1449 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1478 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1507 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 12-2024 to 12% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 94 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 145 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 148 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 151 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 156 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 159 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 163 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 166 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 170 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 173 | 12% |
| 12-2034 | 177 | 12% |
with a 5-year average of $140 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 123 |
| 12-2026 | 128 |
| 12-2027 | 148 |
| 12-2028 | 157 |
| 12-2029 | 161 |
| 12-2030 | 164 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 56 |
| Days Inventory | 26 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 378 | 30 | 153 | (32) | 228 |
| 2026 | 388 | 30 | 156 | 16 | 186 |
| 2027 | 413 | 31 | 159 | 14 | 209 |
| 2028 | 432 | 32 | 165 | 0 | 235 |
| 2029 | 441 | 33 | 169 | 10 | 230 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 74.66 | 532.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 82.95 | 602.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 22.74 | 92.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 43.78 | 271.0% |
Is EnQuest PLC (ENQ.L) a buy or a sell? EnQuest PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, EnQuest PLC (ENQ.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 602.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $11.80.