What is ENDO.ST's DCF valuation?

Endomines AB (publ) (ENDO.ST) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Endomines AB (publ) has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $51.80, this represents a potential upside of -1463218.3%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -116510824134822000.0%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1463218.3%
Discount Rate (WACC) 4.8% - 5.8%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2021 0 100%
12-2022 204 850561%
12-2023 547 168%
12-2024 1048826 191670%
12-2025 1629399355 155255%
12-2026 2278382274014 139730%
12-2027 2867500718667999 125757%
12-2028 3248349642365200896 113182%
12-2029 3312173403231435096064 101865%
12-2030 3039868937952589000998912 91679%
12-2031 2511242223630179757486768128 82510%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -1088029% in 12-2021 to -1074618% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2021 (261) -1088029%
12-2022 (2,215,135) -1085007%
12-2023 (5,921,491) -1082702%
12-2024 (11,332,707,058) -1080513%
12-2025 (17,571,986,211,925) -1078433%
12-2026 (24,525,818,450,292,408) -1076458%
12-2027 (30,856,663,937,010,356,224) -1076082%
12-2028 (34,942,838,928,212,716,683,264) -1075711%
12-2029 (35,617,211,368,608,126,979,801,088) -1075343%
12-2030 (32,677,932,733,556,840,188,281,356,288) -1074978%
12-2031 (26,986,254,301,007,868,147,210,727,194,624) -1074618%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $55 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 41995% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2022 17199
12-2023 63115
12-2024 88153916
12-2025 136941231933
12-2026 191498025415315
12-2027 241032577540171008

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 3,127
Days Inventory 124
Days Payables 718

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2022 (1,074,311) (608) 42868 (75,737) (1,040,834)
2023 (5,726,263) (3,249) 229678 (242,315) (5,710,378)
2024 (10,991,185,756) (6,217,147) 440454087 (684,417,586) (10,741,005,110)
2025 (17,041,408,667,864) (9,640,028,197) 684265390113 (1,033,021,360,714) (16,683,012,669,067)
2026 (23,783,875,727,089,356) (13,454,915,030,841) 956805420916960 (1,370,257,936,189,717) (23,356,968,296,785,760)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 4.8% - 5.8%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.3%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 3.6x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -116510824134822000.0%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1463218.3%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(403,152,731,440,226,560)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(344,007,242,594,852,709,827,002,197,082,112)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Endomines AB (publ) (ENDO.ST) a buy or a sell? Endomines AB (publ) is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Endomines AB (publ) (ENDO.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1463218.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -1088029% to -1074618%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $51.80.