What is EMR.L's Intrinsic value?

Empresaria Group PLC (EMR.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 9, 2025, Empresaria Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $160.08 to $293.74 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $293.74 +879.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $192.34 +541.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $160.08 +433.6%
Earnings Power Value $293.73 +879.1%

Is Empresaria Group PLC (EMR.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $30.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Empresaria Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.81 0.93
Cost of equity 8.8% 11.5%
Cost of debt 4.6% 15.8%
Tax rate 19.0% 19.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 2.66 2.66
After-tax WACC 5.1% 12.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.8% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $246 (FY12-2024) to $345 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -2% to 4%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $192 $115M 81.4%
10-Year Growth $294 $164M 62.0%
5-Year EBITDA $74 $58M 63.0%
10-Year EBITDA $157 $98M 36.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $160.08 (433.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.5% (Low) to 8.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(143) to $(331)
  • Selected fair value: $-237.19 (-890.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $12M
Discount Rate (WACC) 12.4% - 5.1%
Enterprise Value $96M - $232M
Net Debt $22M
Equity Value $74M - $210M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $153 - $434
Selected Fair Value $293.73

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $15M
Enterprise Value $36M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.70
Current Dividend Yield 343.93%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -13.29%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 2.66

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $88.12
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $48.08
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $32.02
Earnings Power Value 12% $29.37
Weighted Average 100% $232.46

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Empresaria Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $232.46, which is approximately 674.9% above the current market price of $30.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-2% to 4% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Empresaria Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.