As of May 28, 2025, Emerald Health Therapeutics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.04, this represents a potential upside of -86098.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -33098.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -86098.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10 million in 12-2021 to $93 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 10 | 18% |
| 12-2022 | 5 | -49% |
| 12-2023 | 8 | 57% |
| 12-2024 | 12 | 58% |
| 12-2025 | 18 | 47% |
| 12-2026 | 26 | 42% |
| 12-2027 | 34 | 34% |
| 12-2028 | 46 | 33% |
| 12-2029 | 59 | 29% |
| 12-2030 | 76 | 29% |
| 12-2031 | 93 | 22% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -405% in 12-2021 to -366% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (39) | -405% |
| 12-2022 | (20) | -397% |
| 12-2023 | (30) | -390% |
| 12-2024 | (47) | -384% |
| 12-2025 | (68) | -378% |
| 12-2026 | (95) | -372% |
| 12-2027 | (127) | -371% |
| 12-2028 | (169) | -369% |
| 12-2029 | (217) | -368% |
| 12-2030 | (280) | -367% |
| 12-2031 | (341) | -366% |
with a 5-year average of $15 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 500% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 20 |
| 12-2023 | 19 |
| 12-2024 | 26 |
| 12-2025 | 43 |
| 12-2026 | 69 |
| 12-2027 | 98 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 39 |
| Days Inventory | 70 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | (0) | (0) | 12 | (0) | (12) |
| 2023 | (11) | (0) | 39 | 1 | (51) |
| 2024 | (21) | (0) | 62 | 1 | (83) |
| 2025 | (25) | (0) | 90 | 2 | (117) |
| 2026 | (26) | (0) | 128 | 2 | (156) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -33098.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -86098.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Emerald Health Therapeutics Inc (EMH.CN) a buy or a sell? Emerald Health Therapeutics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Emerald Health Therapeutics Inc (EMH.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -86098.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.04.