As of December 15, 2025, EMCOR Group Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $164.63 to $1248.45 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $1248.45 | +100.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $853.13 | +36.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $747.09 | +19.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $295.50 | -52.6% |
| Earnings Power Value | $164.63 | -73.6% |
Is EMCOR Group Inc (EME) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $623.65, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate EMCOR Group Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| Cost of equity | 9.5% | 12.1% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 16.7% |
| Tax rate | 27.4% | 27.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 9.5% | 12.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $853 | $37,546M | 75.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $1,248 | $55,244M | 57.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $1,389 | $61,532M | 84.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $1,792 | $79,592M | 70.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $714M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 12.1% - 9.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $5,895M - $7,548M |
| Net Debt | $(649)M |
| Equity Value | $6,544M - $8,197M |
| Outstanding Shares | 45M |
| Fair Value | $146 - $183 |
| Selected Fair Value | $164.63 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $27921M |
| Enterprise Value | $27272M |
| Trailing P/E | 24.70 |
| Forward P/E | 16.92 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 15.40 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 16.24% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 25.12% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $374.54 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $213.28 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $149.42 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $44.33 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $16.46 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $798.02 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, EMCOR Group Inc's intrinsic value is $798.02, which is approximately 28.0% above the current market price of $623.65.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe EMCOR Group Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.