What is ELXR.V's Intrinsic value?

Elixxer Ltd (ELXR.V) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 22, 2025, Elixxer Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.17 to $0.43 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $0.43 -62.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $0.17 -85.1%

Is Elixxer Ltd (ELXR.V) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.15, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Elixxer Ltd's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.36 1.03
Cost of equity 5.7% 11.1%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 26.2% 27.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.62 0.62
After-tax WACC 4.9% 8.3%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $0 (FY12-2022) to $0 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -17256% to -2798%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $0 $11M 86.6%
10-Year Growth $0 $14M 75.0%
5-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $(13)M 111.2%
10-Year EBITDA $(1,234) $(12)M 127.8%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $13M
Enterprise Value $22M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 3.10
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.62

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 55% $0.13
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 45% $0.04
Weighted Average 100% $0.31

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Elixxer Ltd's weighted average intrinsic value is $0.31, which is approximately 73.0% below the current market price of $1.15.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-17256% to -2798% margin)

Given these factors, we believe Elixxer Ltd is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.