What is ELMN.SW's Intrinsic value?

Elma Electronic AG (ELMN.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Elma Electronic AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $703.55 to $7555.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1728.49 +37.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1619.28 +28.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $1769.88 +40.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $7555.65 +499.7%
Earnings Power Value $703.55 -44.2%

Is Elma Electronic AG (ELMN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1260.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Elma Electronic AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.43 0.53
Cost of equity 3.1% 5.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 13.8% 17.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.08 0.08
After-tax WACC 3.2% 5.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 4.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $178 (FY12-2024) to $263 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 5% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,619 $378M 91.3%
10-Year Growth $1,728 $403M 82.0%
5-Year EBITDA $969 $228M 85.7%
10-Year EBITDA $1,125 $264M 72.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 5.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 4.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $1769.88 (40.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 5.2% (Low) to 3.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 2.9% (High)
  • Fair value range: $608 to $14,503
  • Selected fair value: $7555.65 (499.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $7M
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.1% - 3.2%
Enterprise Value $128M - $206M
Net Debt $5M
Equity Value $123M - $201M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $533 - $874
Selected Fair Value $703.55

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $290M
Enterprise Value $295M
Trailing P/E 34.34
Forward P/E 29.31
Trailing EV/EBITDA 12.85
Current Dividend Yield 15.77%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.08

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $518.55
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $404.82
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $353.98
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1133.35
Earnings Power Value 10% $70.36
Weighted Average 100% $2481.05

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Elma Electronic AG's intrinsic value is $2481.05, which is approximately 96.9% above the current market price of $1260.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (5% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.08)

Given these factors, we believe Elma Electronic AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.