As of May 24, 2025, Eldorado Gold Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.85 to $55.63 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $55.63 | +104.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $36.65 | +34.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $31.36 | +15.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $19.81 | -27.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $2.85 | -89.5% |
Is Eldorado Gold Corp (ELD.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $27.23, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Eldorado Gold Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.1 | 1.18 |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% | 11.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 25.9% | 26.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.6% | 9.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $26 | $5,451M | 71.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $40 | $8,236M | 55.7% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $43 | $8,840M | 82.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $54 | $11,072M | 67.0% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $42M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.8% - 7.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $430M - $553M |
| Net Debt | $73M |
| Equity Value | $357M - $480M |
| Outstanding Shares | 205M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $2 |
| Selected Fair Value | $2.85 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $5581M |
| Enterprise Value | $5626M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.06 |
| Forward P/E | 10.89 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -37.49% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.25 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $16.69 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $9.16 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $6.27 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.97 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.29 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $35.38 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Eldorado Gold Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $35.38, which is approximately 29.9% above the current market price of $27.23.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Eldorado Gold Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.