As of June 22, 2025, Euskaltel SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $8.51 per share. With the current market price at $10.94, this represents a potential upside of -22.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $6.18 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $8.51 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -43.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -22.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 10.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $678 million in 12-2020 to $1447 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 678 | 1% |
| 12-2021 | 736 | 9% |
| 12-2022 | 803 | 9% |
| 12-2023 | 876 | 9% |
| 12-2024 | 964 | 10% |
| 12-2025 | 1024 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 1113 | 9% |
| 12-2027 | 1207 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 1267 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1378 | 9% |
| 12-2030 | 1447 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2020 to 8% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 79 | 12% |
| 12-2021 | 58 | 8% |
| 12-2022 | 64 | 8% |
| 12-2023 | 69 | 8% |
| 12-2024 | 76 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 81 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 88 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 96 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 100 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 109 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 115 | 8% |
with a 5-year average of $140 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 22% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 153 |
| 12-2022 | 166 |
| 12-2023 | 173 |
| 12-2024 | 184 |
| 12-2025 | 191 |
| 12-2026 | 208 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 36 |
| Days Inventory | 8 |
| Days Payables | 294 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 140 | 7 | 80 | (1) | 55 |
| 2022 | 305 | 15 | 175 | (9) | 125 |
| 2023 | 326 | 17 | 191 | (13) | 131 |
| 2024 | 352 | 18 | 210 | (11) | 135 |
| 2025 | 370 | 20 | 223 | (9) | 136 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.18 | -43.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.51 | -22.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.05 | -72.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.72 | -47.7% |
Is Euskaltel SA (EKT.MC) a buy or a sell? Euskaltel SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Euskaltel SA (EKT.MC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -22.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $10.94.