As of June 13, 2025, eDreams Odigeo SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $10.26 per share. With the current market price at $8.06, this represents a potential upside of 27.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $7.69 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $10.26 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -4.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 27.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 10.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $671 million in 03-2025 to $1442 million by 03-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 671 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 706 | 5% |
| 03-2027 | 746 | 6% |
| 03-2028 | 831 | 12% |
| 03-2029 | 914 | 10% |
| 03-2030 | 997 | 9% |
| 03-2031 | 1096 | 10% |
| 03-2032 | 1184 | 8% |
| 03-2033 | 1245 | 5% |
| 03-2034 | 1340 | 8% |
| 03-2035 | 1442 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 7% in 03-2025 to 7% by 03-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 45 | 7% |
| 03-2026 | 46 | 7% |
| 03-2027 | 49 | 7% |
| 03-2028 | 54 | 7% |
| 03-2029 | 60 | 7% |
| 03-2030 | 65 | 7% |
| 03-2031 | 72 | 7% |
| 03-2032 | 77 | 7% |
| 03-2033 | 81 | 7% |
| 03-2034 | 88 | 7% |
| 03-2035 | 94 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $38 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2026 | 48 |
| 03-2027 | 57 |
| 03-2028 | 66 |
| 03-2029 | 74 |
| 03-2030 | 83 |
| 03-2031 | 90 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 32 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 11,224 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 125 | 5 | 70 | 57 | (7) |
| 2027 | 139 | 6 | 74 | (61) | 121 |
| 2028 | 157 | 6 | 82 | (15) | 83 |
| 2029 | 174 | 7 | 90 | (12) | 89 |
| 2030 | 192 | 8 | 98 | (37) | 123 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 7.69 | -4.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 10.26 | 27.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.20 | -35.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.95 | -1.4% |
Is eDreams Odigeo SA (EDR.MC) a buy or a sell? eDreams Odigeo SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, eDreams Odigeo SA (EDR.MC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 27.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $8.06.