What is EDL.L's DCF valuation?

Edenville Energy PLC (EDL.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 31, 2025, Edenville Energy PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $9.25, this represents a potential upside of -1768.8%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -1430.1%
Potential Upside (10-year) -1768.8%
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.0% - 8.8%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2022 0 74%
12-2023 0 5%
12-2024 0 10%
12-2025 0 12%
12-2026 0 10%
12-2027 0 10%
12-2028 0 11%
12-2029 0 13%
12-2030 0 9%
12-2031 0 11%
12-2032 0 8%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -958% in 12-2022 to -391% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2022 (2) -958%
12-2023 (2) -180%
12-2024 (2) -193%
12-2025 (2) -212%
12-2026 (2) -228%
12-2027 (2) -245%
12-2028 (3) -270%
12-2029 (3) -305%
12-2030 (3) -331%
12-2031 (4) -364%
12-2032 (4) -391%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2023 0
12-2024 0
12-2025 0
12-2026 0
12-2027 0
12-2028 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 3
Days Inventory 94
Days Payables 136

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2023 (2) (0) 0 0 (2)
2024 (2) (0) 0 (0) (2)
2025 (2) (0) 0 0 (2)
2026 (2) (0) 0 (0) (2)
2027 (2) (0) 0 (0) (2)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 7.0% - 8.8%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 1.7x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1430.1%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -1768.8%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(50)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(63)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Edenville Energy PLC (EDL.L) a buy or a sell? Edenville Energy PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Edenville Energy PLC (EDL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1768.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -958% to -391%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $9.25.