What is EDIN.L's Intrinsic value?

Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC (EDIN.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $605.56 to $1176.18 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1116.59 +39.6%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $1035.70 +29.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $762.09 -4.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1176.18 +47.0%
Earnings Power Value $605.56 -24.3%

Is Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC (EDIN.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $800.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.09 1.24
Cost of equity 10.5% 13.7%
Cost of debt 4.6% 7.0%
Tax rate 0.4% 0.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.11 0.11
After-tax WACC 9.9% 13.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 11.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $141 (FY03-2024) to $198 (FY03-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 93% to 93%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,036 $1,521M 65.4%
10-Year Growth $1,117 $1,635M 42.5%
5-Year EBITDA $613 $930M 43.4%
10-Year EBITDA $821 $1,221M 23.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 22.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 12.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $762.09 (-4.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.7% (Low) to 10.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $741 to $1,612
  • Selected fair value: $1176.18 (47.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $103M
Discount Rate (WACC) 13.0% - 9.9%
Enterprise Value $795M - $1,044M
Net Debt $73M
Equity Value $723M - $971M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $517 - $695
Selected Fair Value $605.56

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1119M
Enterprise Value $1192M
Trailing P/E 5.97
Forward P/E 7.89
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.35
Current Dividend Yield 375.99%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -0.82%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.11

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $334.98
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $258.92
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $152.42
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $176.43
Earnings Power Value 10% $60.56
Weighted Average 100% $983.30

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $983.30, which is approximately 22.9% above the current market price of $800.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (93% to 93% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.11)

Given these factors, we believe Edinburgh Investment Trust PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.