What is ED's Intrinsic value?

Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of October 8, 2026, Consolidated Edison Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $97.37 to $360.21 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $164.72 +57.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $123.87 +18.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $116.07 +10.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $97.37 -6.9%
Earnings Power Value $360.21 +244.2%

Is Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $104.64, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Consolidated Edison Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.18 0.2
Cost of equity 5.2% 6.5%
Cost of debt 4.1% 4.9%
Tax rate 15.7% 18.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.7 0.7
After-tax WACC 4.5% 5.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $16,915 (FY12-2025) to $28,116 (FY12-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 13%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 30% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $124 $71,994M 82.6%
10-Year Growth $165 $87,048M 69.0%
5-Year EBITDA $110 $66,946M 81.3%
10-Year EBITDA $149 $81,280M 66.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 54.8%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.8%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $116.07 (10.9% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 6.5% (Low) to 5.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $65 to $130
  • Selected fair value: $97.37 (-6.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $7,813M
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.5% - 4.5%
Enterprise Value $143,233M - $174,954M
Net Debt $26,344M
Equity Value $116,889M - $148,610M
Outstanding Shares 369M
Fair Value $317 - $403
Selected Fair Value $360.21

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $38563M
Enterprise Value $64907M
Trailing P/E 17.39
Forward P/E 16.49
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.60
Current Dividend Yield 306.46%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 3.15%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.70

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $49.42
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $30.97
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $23.21
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $14.61
Earnings Power Value 10% $36.02
Weighted Average 100% $154.22

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Consolidated Edison Inc's intrinsic value is $154.22, which is approximately 47.4% above the current market price of $104.64.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 13% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 3.15%

Given these factors, we believe Consolidated Edison Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.