What is ED's Intrinsic value?

Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 26, 2026, Consolidated Edison Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $93.47 to $355.11 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $155.38 +43.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $118.08 +8.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $106.86 -1.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $93.47 -13.9%
Earnings Power Value $355.11 +227.2%

Is Consolidated Edison Inc (ED) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $108.54, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Consolidated Edison Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.29 0.32
Cost of equity 5.2% 6.6%
Cost of debt 4.1% 4.9%
Tax rate 15.7% 18.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.7 0.7
After-tax WACC 4.5% 5.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $16,915 (FY12-2025) to $26,551 (FY12-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 13%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 30% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $118 $70,027M 81.5%
10-Year Growth $155 $83,771M 68.3%
5-Year EBITDA $111 $67,285M 80.7%
10-Year EBITDA $150 $81,809M 67.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 55.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 5.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $106.86 (-1.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 6.6% (Low) to 5.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $62 to $125
  • Selected fair value: $93.47 (-13.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $7,813M
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.6% - 4.5%
Enterprise Value $140,503M - $174,204M
Net Debt $26,526M
Equity Value $113,977M - $147,678M
Outstanding Shares 368M
Fair Value $309 - $401
Selected Fair Value $355.11

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $39988M
Enterprise Value $66514M
Trailing P/E 18.56
Forward P/E 17.31
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.00
Current Dividend Yield 298.09%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 3.15%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.70

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $46.61
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $29.52
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $21.37
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $14.02
Earnings Power Value 10% $35.51
Weighted Average 100% $147.04

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Consolidated Edison Inc's intrinsic value is $147.04, which is approximately 35.5% above the current market price of $108.54.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 13% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 3.15%

Given these factors, we believe Consolidated Edison Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.