As of June 18, 2025, Eurocommercial Properties NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $5.26 to $62.12 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $44.79 | +78.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $37.37 | +48.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $51.41 | +104.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $62.12 | +147.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $5.26 | -79.1% |
Is Eurocommercial Properties NV (ECMPA.AS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $25.15, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Eurocommercial Properties NV's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.6 | 0.67 |
| Cost of equity | 5.6% | 7.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.4% | 32.8% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.12 | 1.12 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.4% | 5.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $37 | $3,600M | 84.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $45 | $4,007M | 71.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $21 | $2,693M | 78.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $29 | $3,144M | 63.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $87M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 4.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,678M - $1,996M |
| Net Debt | $1,548M |
| Equity Value | $130M - $448M |
| Outstanding Shares | 55M |
| Fair Value | $2 - $8 |
| Selected Fair Value | $5.26 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1381M |
| Enterprise Value | $2929M |
| Trailing P/E | 6.39 |
| Forward P/E | 7.52 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 512.38% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -6.69% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.12 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $13.44 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $9.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $10.28 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $9.32 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.53 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $42.91 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Eurocommercial Properties NV's weighted average intrinsic value is $42.91, which is approximately 70.6% above the current market price of $25.15.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Eurocommercial Properties NV is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.