As of June 17, 2025, eBay Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $76.38 per share. With the current market price at $77.71, this represents a potential upside of -1.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $67.12 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $76.38 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -13.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.4% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10283 million in 12-2024 to $15722 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 10283 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 10400 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 11047 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 11595 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 11943 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 12430 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 13094 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 13923 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 14824 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 15262 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 15722 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 19% in 12-2024 to 17% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1981 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 1725 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 1832 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 1923 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 1980 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 2061 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 2171 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 2309 | 17% |
| 12-2032 | 2458 | 17% |
| 12-2033 | 2531 | 17% |
| 12-2034 | 2607 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $460 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 459 |
| 12-2026 | 473 |
| 12-2027 | 492 |
| 12-2028 | 512 |
| 12-2029 | 537 |
| 12-2030 | 562 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 4 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 34 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 2102 | 434 | 364 | (17) | 1321 |
| 2026 | 2963 | 615 | 516 | (5) | 1837 |
| 2027 | 3105 | 646 | 542 | (5) | 1922 |
| 2028 | 3204 | 665 | 558 | (10) | 1991 |
| 2029 | 3339 | 692 | 581 | (6) | 2071 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 67.12 | -13.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 76.38 | -1.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 62.64 | -19.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 72.41 | -6.8% |
Is eBay Inc (EBAY) a buy or a sell? eBay Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, eBay Inc (EBAY) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -1.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $77.71.