What is E.TO's Intrinsic value?

Enterprise Group Inc (E.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 5, 2025, Enterprise Group Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $1.15 to $4.18 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $4.18 +150.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2.35 +40.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $2.29 +37.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1.15 -30.9%
Earnings Power Value $1.56 -6.4%

Is Enterprise Group Inc (E.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1.67, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Enterprise Group Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.41 0.55
Cost of equity 5.3% 7.5%
Cost of debt 6.8% 10.4%
Tax rate 1.0% 2.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.22 0.22
After-tax WACC 5.5% 8.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $35 (FY12-2024) to $136 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 13% to 13%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 29% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2 $180M 81.5%
10-Year Growth $4 $322M 72.3%
5-Year EBITDA $6 $439M 92.4%
10-Year EBITDA $8 $587M 84.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $2.29 (37.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.5% (Low) to 5.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $0 to $2
  • Selected fair value: $1.15 (-30.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $8M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.0% - 5.5%
Enterprise Value $97M - $141M
Net Debt $(2)M
Equity Value $99M - $143M
Outstanding Shares 78M
Fair Value $1 - $2
Selected Fair Value $1.56

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $129M
Enterprise Value $127M
Trailing P/E 36.68
Forward P/E 21.93
Trailing EV/EBITDA 16.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.22

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $1.25
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $0.59
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $0.46
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $0.17
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.16
Weighted Average 100% $2.63

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Enterprise Group Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.63, which is approximately 57.4% above the current market price of $1.67.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (13% to 13% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.22)

Given these factors, we believe Enterprise Group Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.