As of June 6, 2025, Dustin Group AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $1.03 per share. With the current market price at $2.00, this represents a potential upside of -48.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $1.12 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $1.03 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -44.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -48.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 13.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $21482 million in 08-2024 to $30223 million by 08-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 21482 | 9% |
| 08-2025 | 20732 | -3% |
| 08-2026 | 22110 | 7% |
| 08-2027 | 23147 | 5% |
| 08-2028 | 23610 | 2% |
| 08-2029 | 24324 | 3% |
| 08-2030 | 24811 | 2% |
| 08-2031 | 25630 | 3% |
| 08-2032 | 27390 | 7% |
| 08-2033 | 28797 | 5% |
| 08-2034 | 30223 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 08-2024 to 0% by 08-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 08-2024 | 53 | 0% |
| 08-2025 | 85 | 0% |
| 08-2026 | 91 | 0% |
| 08-2027 | 95 | 0% |
| 08-2028 | 97 | 0% |
| 08-2029 | 100 | 0% |
| 08-2030 | 102 | 0% |
| 08-2031 | 105 | 0% |
| 08-2032 | 113 | 0% |
| 08-2033 | 119 | 0% |
| 08-2034 | 124 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $174 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 08-2025 | 188 |
| 08-2026 | 210 |
| 08-2027 | 213 |
| 08-2028 | 206 |
| 08-2029 | 199 |
| 08-2030 | 207 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 47 |
| Days Inventory | 20 |
| Days Payables | 63 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 254 | 14 | 91 | 19 | 130 |
| 2026 | 550 | 29 | 194 | 11 | 317 |
| 2027 | 568 | 30 | 203 | 25 | 311 |
| 2028 | 569 | 31 | 207 | 23 | 308 |
| 2029 | 573 | 32 | 213 | 12 | 317 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.12 | -44.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.03 | -48.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.49 | -75.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.69 | -65.6% |
Is Dustin Group AB (DUST.ST) a buy or a sell? Dustin Group AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Dustin Group AB (DUST.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -48.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.00.