As of October 10, 2025, Dufry AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $45.35 per share. With the current market price at $34.59, this represents a potential upside of 31.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $40.03 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $45.35 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 15.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 31.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.9% - 7.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $6878 million in 12-2022 to $10241 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 6878 | 76% |
| 12-2023 | 7239 | 5% |
| 12-2024 | 7442 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 7673 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 7918 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 8203 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 8583 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 8908 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 9375 | 5% |
| 12-2031 | 9789 | 4% |
| 12-2032 | 10241 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2022 to 2% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 121 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 127 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 130 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 135 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 139 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 144 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 150 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 156 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 164 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 172 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 180 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $166 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 157 |
| 12-2024 | 149 |
| 12-2025 | 170 |
| 12-2026 | 197 |
| 12-2027 | 222 |
| 12-2028 | 230 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 159 |
| Days Payables | 62 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2023 | 317 | 40 | 104 | 157 | 16 |
| 2024 | 639 | 82 | 215 | (110) | 452 |
| 2025 | 675 | 85 | 221 | 7 | 361 |
| 2026 | 718 | 88 | 228 | 76 | 326 |
| 2027 | 762 | 91 | 237 | (7) | 441 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 40.03 | 15.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 45.35 | 31.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Dufry AG (DUFN.SW) a buy or a sell? Dufry AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dufry AG (DUFN.SW) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 31.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $34.59.