What is DSPG's Intrinsic value?

Dsp Group Inc (DSPG) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 6, 2025, Dsp Group Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $2.20 to $7.27 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $7.27 -66.9%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2.20 -90.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3.96 -82.0%

Is Dsp Group Inc (DSPG) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $21.98, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Dsp Group Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 0.75 0.91
Cost of equity 6.3% 8.9%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 8.0% 26.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0 0
After-tax WACC 6.3% 8.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $114 (FY12-2020) to $249 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -6% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2 $32M 110.8%
10-Year Growth $7 $152M 86.7%
5-Year EBITDA $4 $73M 104.7%
10-Year EBITDA $8 $159M 87.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $3.96 (-82.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.9% (Low) to 6.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(2) to $(9)
  • Selected fair value: $-5.25 (-123.9% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $521M
Enterprise Value $501M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 16.80
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.00

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 40% $2.18
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 33% $0.55
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 27% $0.79
Weighted Average 100% $4.70

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Dsp Group Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $4.70, which is approximately 78.6% below the current market price of $21.98.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-6% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.00)

Given these factors, we believe Dsp Group Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.