What is DSKE's Intrinsic value?

Daseke Inc (DSKE) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Daseke Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $6.73 to $58.34 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $34.58 +317.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $27.08 +226.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $6.73 -18.8%
Earnings Power Value $58.34 +603.7%

Is Daseke Inc (DSKE) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $8.29, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Daseke Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.42 1.46
Cost of equity 10.4% 13.1%
Cost of debt 5.9% 15.6%
Tax rate 18.9% 29.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 1.67 1.67
After-tax WACC 6.9% 11.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,569 (FY12-2023) to $2,459 (FY12-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -1% to 3%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $9 $1,008M 72.9%
10-Year Growth $14 $1,220M 54.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $6.73 (-18.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.1% (Low) to 10.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(2) to $(5)
  • Selected fair value: $0.00 (-100.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $290M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.8% - 6.9%
Enterprise Value $2,460M - $4,203M
Net Debt $578M
Equity Value $1,882M - $3,625M
Outstanding Shares 47M
Fair Value $40 - $77
Selected Fair Value $58.34

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $391M
Enterprise Value $969M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 160.30
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.55
Current Dividend Yield 255.57%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 18.92%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 1.67

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $10.37
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $6.77
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $1.35
Earnings Power Value 12% $5.83
Weighted Average 100% $28.62

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Daseke Inc's intrinsic value is $28.62, which is approximately 245.2% above the current market price of $8.29.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-1% to 3% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 18.92%

Given these factors, we believe Daseke Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.