As of June 29, 2025, dotDigital Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $50.73 to $87.19 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $82.56 | +9.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $66.21 | -12.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $60.18 | -20.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $50.73 | -32.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $87.19 | +15.6% |
Is dotDigital Group PLC (DOTD.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $75.40, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate dotDigital Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| Cost of equity | 7.7% | 9.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 11.6% | 12.7% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.6% | 9.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $66 | $158M | 75.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $83 | $208M | 59.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $89 | $229M | 82.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $103 | $271M | 68.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $19M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.7% - 7.6% |
| Enterprise Value | $196M - $249M |
| Net Debt | $(44)M |
| Equity Value | $240M - $292M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $79 - $96 |
| Selected Fair Value | $87.19 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $230M |
| Enterprise Value | $186M |
| Trailing P/E | 20.30 |
| Forward P/E | 18.04 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 9.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 133.23% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 11.33% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.01 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $24.77 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $16.55 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $12.04 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $7.61 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $8.72 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $69.69 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, dotDigital Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $69.69, which is approximately 7.6% below the current market price of $75.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe dotDigital Group PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.