As of May 22, 2025, Domino's Pizza Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $493.73 per share. With the current market price at $268.00, this represents a potential upside of 84.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $404.31 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $493.73 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 50.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 84.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 8.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $680 million in 12-2023 to $1025 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 680 | 13% |
| 12-2024 | 667 | -2% |
| 12-2025 | 724 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 745 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 802 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 845 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 862 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 916 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 962 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 1004 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 1025 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 17% in 12-2023 to 17% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 115 | 17% |
| 12-2024 | 115 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 125 | 17% |
| 12-2026 | 129 | 17% |
| 12-2027 | 138 | 17% |
| 12-2028 | 146 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 149 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 158 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 166 | 17% |
| 12-2032 | 173 | 17% |
| 12-2033 | 177 | 17% |
with a 5-year average of $20 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 19 |
| 12-2025 | 21 |
| 12-2026 | 23 |
| 12-2027 | 25 |
| 12-2028 | 26 |
| 12-2029 | 28 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 23 |
| Days Inventory | 13 |
| Days Payables | 20 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2024 | 86 | 12 | 12 | (1) | 63 |
| 2025 | 186 | 27 | 25 | 9 | 126 |
| 2026 | 193 | 27 | 26 | (2) | 142 |
| 2027 | 208 | 29 | 28 | 4 | 148 |
| 2028 | 220 | 31 | 29 | 3 | 156 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 404.31 | 50.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 493.73 | 84.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 292.62 | 9.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 395.55 | 47.6% |
Is Domino's Pizza Group PLC (DOM.L) a buy or a sell? Domino's Pizza Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Domino's Pizza Group PLC (DOM.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 84.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $268.00.