As of May 22, 2025, Dormakaba Holding AG has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $801.89 per share. With the current market price at $738.00, this represents a potential upside of 8.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $854.54 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $801.89 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 15.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 8.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.1% - 6.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2837 million in 06-2024 to $3901 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 2837 | 0% |
| 06-2025 | 2929 | 3% |
| 06-2026 | 3065 | 5% |
| 06-2027 | 3127 | 2% |
| 06-2028 | 3211 | 3% |
| 06-2029 | 3326 | 4% |
| 06-2030 | 3392 | 2% |
| 06-2031 | 3525 | 4% |
| 06-2032 | 3595 | 2% |
| 06-2033 | 3732 | 4% |
| 06-2034 | 3901 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 06-2024 to 3% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 82 | 3% |
| 06-2025 | 86 | 3% |
| 06-2026 | 90 | 3% |
| 06-2027 | 92 | 3% |
| 06-2028 | 94 | 3% |
| 06-2029 | 98 | 3% |
| 06-2030 | 100 | 3% |
| 06-2031 | 104 | 3% |
| 06-2032 | 106 | 3% |
| 06-2033 | 110 | 3% |
| 06-2034 | 115 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $89 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 90 |
| 06-2026 | 95 |
| 06-2027 | 100 |
| 06-2028 | 101 |
| 06-2029 | 104 |
| 06-2030 | 107 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 62 |
| Days Inventory | 109 |
| Days Payables | 38 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 127 | 26 | 49 | 20 | 33 |
| 2026 | 268 | 55 | 102 | 22 | 89 |
| 2027 | 276 | 56 | 104 | 24 | 93 |
| 2028 | 283 | 57 | 106 | 25 | 93 |
| 2029 | 291 | 59 | 110 | 29 | 93 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 854.54 | 15.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 801.89 | 8.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 440.70 | -40.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 476.12 | -35.5% |
Is Dormakaba Holding AG (DOKA.SW) a buy or a sell? Dormakaba Holding AG is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dormakaba Holding AG (DOKA.SW) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 8.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $738.00.