As of May 25, 2025, Dods Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $173.97 per share. With the current market price at $67.50, this represents a potential upside of 157.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $92.10 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $173.97 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 36.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 157.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.1% - 9.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $28 million in 03-2020 to $31 million by 03-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | 28 | 30% |
| 03-2021 | 23 | -18% |
| 03-2022 | 23 | 2% |
| 03-2023 | 24 | 4% |
| 03-2024 | 25 | 6% |
| 03-2025 | 27 | 5% |
| 03-2026 | 28 | 6% |
| 03-2027 | 29 | 2% |
| 03-2028 | 30 | 4% |
| 03-2029 | 31 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 31 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -4% in 03-2020 to 13% by 03-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2020 | (1) | -4% |
| 03-2021 | (0) | -1% |
| 03-2022 | 0 | 2% |
| 03-2023 | 1 | 5% |
| 03-2024 | 2 | 8% |
| 03-2025 | 3 | 10% |
| 03-2026 | 3 | 11% |
| 03-2027 | 3 | 11% |
| 03-2028 | 4 | 12% |
| 03-2029 | 4 | 12% |
| 03-2030 | 4 | 13% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 6% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2021 | 1 |
| 03-2022 | 1 |
| 03-2023 | 1 |
| 03-2024 | 1 |
| 03-2025 | 1 |
| 03-2026 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 2 |
| Days Payables | 22 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 1 | (0) | 1 | (0) | 0 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 1 | (0) | 1 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2024 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 92.10 | 36.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 173.97 | 157.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 50.13 | -25.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 100.59 | 49.0% |
Is Dods Group PLC (DODS.L) a buy or a sell? Dods Group PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dods Group PLC (DODS.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 157.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $67.50.