As of May 22, 2025, Diurnal Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $27.30, this represents a potential upside of -234686011.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1276355.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -234686011.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 7.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $5 million in 06-2022 to $2031782 million by 06-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 263.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2022 | 5 | 7% |
| 06-2023 | 29 | 517% |
| 06-2024 | 134 | 364% |
| 06-2025 | 621 | 363% |
| 06-2026 | 2469 | 298% |
| 06-2027 | 9061 | 267% |
| 06-2028 | 30926 | 241% |
| 06-2029 | 97489 | 215% |
| 06-2030 | 287833 | 195% |
| 06-2031 | 790764 | 175% |
| 06-2032 | 2031782 | 157% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -354% in 06-2022 to -345% by 06-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2022 | (17) | -354% |
| 06-2023 | (101) | -349% |
| 06-2024 | (468) | -348% |
| 06-2025 | (2,158) | -348% |
| 06-2026 | (8,560) | -347% |
| 06-2027 | (31,347) | -346% |
| 06-2028 | (106,951) | -346% |
| 06-2029 | (337,005) | -346% |
| 06-2030 | (994,588) | -346% |
| 06-2031 | (2,731,315) | -345% |
| 06-2032 | (7,014,958) | -345% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2023 | 1 |
| 06-2024 | 4 |
| 06-2025 | 19 |
| 06-2026 | 77 |
| 06-2027 | 293 |
| 06-2028 | 1028 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 178 |
| Days Inventory | 642 |
| Days Payables | 270 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | (115) | (16) | 3 | 13 | (116) |
| 2024 | (533) | (73) | 16 | 84 | (560) |
| 2025 | (2,461) | (337) | 74 | 519 | (2,717) |
| 2026 | (9,755) | (1,336) | 294 | 1370 | (10,084) |
| 2027 | (35,714) | (4,892) | 1078 | 5671 | (37,571) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1276355.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -234686011.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Diurnal Group PLC (DNL.L) a buy or a sell? Diurnal Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Diurnal Group PLC (DNL.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -234686011.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $27.30.