What is DMTR.L's DCF valuation?

Deepmatter Group PLC (DMTR.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Deepmatter Group PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.03, this represents a potential upside of -13600.5%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -14309.8%
Potential Upside (10-year) -13600.5%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.0% - 6.0%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $1 million in 12-2021 to $1 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.0%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2021 1 23%
12-2022 1 7%
12-2023 1 7%
12-2024 1 3%
12-2025 1 2%
12-2026 1 4%
12-2027 1 2%
12-2028 1 3%
12-2029 1 2%
12-2030 1 3%
12-2031 1 4%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -299% in 12-2021 to -285% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2021 (3) -299%
12-2022 (3) -292%
12-2023 (3) -291%
12-2024 (3) -289%
12-2025 (3) -288%
12-2026 (4) -286%
12-2027 (4) -286%
12-2028 (4) -286%
12-2029 (4) -286%
12-2030 (4) -285%
12-2031 (4) -285%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 11% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2022 0
12-2023 0
12-2024 0
12-2025 0
12-2026 0
12-2027 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 73
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 59

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
6M/2022 (2) (0) 0 0 (2)
2023 (4) (0) 0 (0) (3)
2024 (4) (0) 0 (0) (3)
2025 (4) (0) 0 0 (4)
2026 (4) (0) 0 (0) (4)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.0% - 6.0%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 4.7%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 3.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -14309.8%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -13600.5%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(188)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(178)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Deepmatter Group PLC (DMTR.L) a buy or a sell? Deepmatter Group PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Deepmatter Group PLC (DMTR.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -13600.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -299% to -285%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.03.