What is DLR's Intrinsic value?

Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 3, 2025, Digital Realty Trust Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.06 to $155.50 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $155.50 -10.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $84.25 -51.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $133.73 -22.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $95.62 -44.6%
Earnings Power Value $0.06 -100.0%

Is Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $172.72, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Digital Realty Trust Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.36 0.5
Cost of equity 5.5% 7.7%
Cost of debt 4.0% 7.0%
Tax rate 7.5% 8.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.29 0.29
After-tax WACC 5.1% 7.4%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 6.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5,555 (FY12-2024) to $11,621 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 11% to 21%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 62% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $84 $43,066M 90.3%
10-Year Growth $156 $67,060M 84.0%
5-Year EBITDA $201 $82,412M 94.9%
10-Year EBITDA $254 $100,126M 89.3%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 392.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.9%
  • Fair value: $133.73 (-22.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.7% (Low) to 5.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 4.9% (High)
  • Fair value range: $19 to $172
  • Selected fair value: $95.62 (-44.6% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $890M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.4% - 5.1%
Enterprise Value $12,045M - $17,388M
Net Debt $14,694M
Equity Value $(2,650)M - $2,693M
Outstanding Shares 337M
Fair Value $(8) - $8
Selected Fair Value $0.06

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $58163M
Enterprise Value $72858M
Trailing P/E 134.96
Forward P/E 78.23
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.15
Current Dividend Yield 293.17%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 7.14%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.29

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $46.65
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $21.06
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $26.75
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $14.34
Earnings Power Value 10% $0.01
Weighted Average 100% $108.81

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Digital Realty Trust Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $108.81, which is approximately 37.0% below the current market price of $172.72.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (11% to 21% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.29)
  • Historical dividend growth of 7.14%

Given these factors, we believe Digital Realty Trust Inc is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.