What is DISH's Intrinsic value?

DISH Network Corp (DISH) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of July 16, 2025, DISH Network Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $8.14 to $56.79 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $8.14 +41.1%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $56.79 +884.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $36.99 +541.0%

Is DISH Network Corp (DISH) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $5.77, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate DISH Network Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.05 1.51
Cost of equity 8.7% 13.3%
Cost of debt 5.3% 20.9%
Tax rate 23.7% 24.0%
Debt/Equity ratio 12.5 12.5
After-tax WACC 4.4% 15.7%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $16,679 (FY12-2022) to $20,286 (FY12-2032)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 14% to 14%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 17% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $8 $22,801M 67.5%
10-Year Growth $(1,234) $16,819M 36.3%
5-Year EBITDA $43 $32,978M 77.6%
10-Year EBITDA $20 $26,413M 59.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $56.79 (884.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.3% (Low) to 8.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $23 to $51
  • Selected fair value: $36.99 (541.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1708M
Enterprise Value $22100M
Trailing P/E 1.40
Forward P/E 0.77
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 12.50

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 42% $2.04
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 33% $11.36
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 25% $5.55
Weighted Average 100% $31.57

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, DISH Network Corp's intrinsic value is $31.57, which is approximately 447.1% above the current market price of $5.77.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (14% to 14% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe DISH Network Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.