As of May 23, 2025, Dialight PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $130.70 per share. With the current market price at $109.50, this represents a potential upside of 19.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $130.70 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -380.6% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 19.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $226 million in 03-2024 to $284 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 226 | 20% |
| 03-2025 | 139 | -38% |
| 03-2026 | 149 | 7% |
| 03-2027 | 159 | 7% |
| 03-2028 | 173 | 9% |
| 03-2029 | 187 | 8% |
| 03-2030 | 203 | 9% |
| 03-2031 | 220 | 8% |
| 03-2032 | 236 | 7% |
| 03-2033 | 259 | 10% |
| 03-2034 | 284 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -14% in 03-2024 to 3% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (32) | -14% |
| 03-2025 | (13) | -9% |
| 03-2026 | (10) | -6% |
| 03-2027 | (6) | -4% |
| 03-2028 | (3) | -2% |
| 03-2029 | 1 | 1% |
| 03-2030 | 2 | 1% |
| 03-2031 | 3 | 1% |
| 03-2032 | 4 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 6 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 7 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 7 |
| 03-2026 | 8 |
| 03-2027 | 8 |
| 03-2028 | 8 |
| 03-2029 | 8 |
| 03-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 61 |
| Days Inventory | 147 |
| Days Payables | 64 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (3) | (2) | 4 | (4) | (1) |
| 2026 | (2) | (3) | 8 | (1) | (6) |
| 2027 | 3 | (2) | 8 | (1) | (3) |
| 2028 | 8 | (1) | 9 | 6 | (7) |
| 2029 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -380.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 130.70 | 19.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 12.09 | -89.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 170.74 | 55.9% |
Is Dialight PLC (DIA.L) a buy or a sell? Dialight PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dialight PLC (DIA.L) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 19.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $109.50.