As of August 7, 2025, Dollar General Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $125.43 per share. With the current market price at $113.32, this represents a potential upside of 10.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $121.84 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $125.43 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 7.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 10.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.1% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $40612 million in 01-2025 to $62402 million by 01-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 40612 | 5% |
| 01-2026 | 42576 | 5% |
| 01-2027 | 45309 | 6% |
| 01-2028 | 48533 | 7% |
| 01-2029 | 50417 | 4% |
| 01-2030 | 51626 | 2% |
| 01-2031 | 52659 | 2% |
| 01-2032 | 53712 | 2% |
| 01-2033 | 56574 | 5% |
| 01-2034 | 58375 | 3% |
| 01-2035 | 62402 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 01-2025 to 3% by 01-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 1125 | 3% |
| 01-2026 | 1180 | 3% |
| 01-2027 | 1255 | 3% |
| 01-2028 | 1345 | 3% |
| 01-2029 | 1397 | 3% |
| 01-2030 | 1430 | 3% |
| 01-2031 | 1459 | 3% |
| 01-2032 | 1488 | 3% |
| 01-2033 | 1568 | 3% |
| 01-2034 | 1617 | 3% |
| 01-2035 | 1729 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $1334 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2026 | 1433 |
| 01-2027 | 1544 |
| 01-2028 | 1580 |
| 01-2029 | 1601 |
| 01-2030 | 1709 |
| 01-2031 | 1781 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 92 |
| Days Payables | 49 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8M/2026 | 2154 | 220 | 1017 | 414 | 502 |
| 2027 | 3456 | 351 | 1624 | 155 | 1327 |
| 2028 | 3628 | 376 | 1739 | 126 | 1387 |
| 2029 | 3729 | 390 | 1807 | 265 | 1267 |
| 2030 | 3888 | 400 | 1850 | 64 | 1575 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 121.84 | 7.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 125.43 | 10.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 86.82 | -23.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 97.08 | -14.3% |
Is Dollar General Corp (DG) a buy or a sell? Dollar General Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dollar General Corp (DG) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 10.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $113.32.