As of June 13, 2025, Deckers Outdoor Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $163.75 per share. With the current market price at $107.70, this represents a potential upside of 52.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $151.52 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $163.75 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 40.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 52.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 7.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4986 million in 03-2025 to $7920 million by 03-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 4986 | 16% |
| 03-2026 | 5242 | 5% |
| 03-2027 | 5495 | 5% |
| 03-2028 | 5974 | 9% |
| 03-2029 | 6154 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 6377 | 4% |
| 03-2031 | 6505 | 2% |
| 03-2032 | 6809 | 5% |
| 03-2033 | 7123 | 5% |
| 03-2034 | 7438 | 4% |
| 03-2035 | 7920 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 19% in 03-2025 to 19% by 03-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 966 | 19% |
| 03-2026 | 1014 | 19% |
| 03-2027 | 1063 | 19% |
| 03-2028 | 1156 | 19% |
| 03-2029 | 1191 | 19% |
| 03-2030 | 1234 | 19% |
| 03-2031 | 1259 | 19% |
| 03-2032 | 1318 | 19% |
| 03-2033 | 1378 | 19% |
| 03-2034 | 1439 | 19% |
| 03-2035 | 1532 | 19% |
with a 5-year average of $68 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2026 | 80 |
| 03-2027 | 90 |
| 03-2028 | 95 |
| 03-2029 | 99 |
| 03-2030 | 104 |
| 03-2031 | 109 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 28 |
| Days Inventory | 95 |
| Days Payables | 66 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1319 | 293 | 94 | 149 | 784 |
| 2027 | 1389 | 307 | 98 | (46) | 1029 |
| 2028 | 1507 | 334 | 107 | 51 | 1015 |
| 2029 | 1554 | 344 | 110 | 41 | 1058 |
| 2030 | 1612 | 356 | 114 | 4 | 1137 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 151.52 | 40.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 163.75 | 52.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 100.38 | -6.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 118.62 | 10.1% |
Is Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) a buy or a sell? Deckers Outdoor Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 52.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $107.70.