As of May 23, 2025, 4D Pharma PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $16.66, this represents a potential upside of -896.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -879.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -896.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 47.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1 million in 12-2021 to $1 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 0.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2022 | 1 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 1 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 1 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 1 | 4% |
| 12-2031 | 1 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -10337% in 12-2021 to -6797% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (54) | -10337% |
| 12-2022 | (52) | -5162% |
| 12-2023 | (53) | -5301% |
| 12-2024 | (55) | -5535% |
| 12-2025 | (56) | -5645% |
| 12-2026 | (58) | -5758% |
| 12-2027 | (60) | -5983% |
| 12-2028 | (61) | -6103% |
| 12-2029 | (63) | -6340% |
| 12-2030 | (66) | -6604% |
| 12-2031 | (68) | -6797% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 118% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 0 |
| 12-2023 | 0 |
| 12-2024 | 0 |
| 12-2025 | 1 |
| 12-2026 | 1 |
| 12-2027 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 0 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | (60) | (9) | 1 | 1 | (53) |
| 2023 | (62) | (9) | 1 | 0 | (54) |
| 2024 | (65) | (10) | 1 | 0 | (56) |
| 2025 | (66) | (10) | 1 | 0 | (57) |
| 2026 | (67) | (10) | 1 | 0 | (58) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -879.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -896.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is 4D Pharma PLC (DDDD.L) a buy or a sell? 4D Pharma PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, 4D Pharma PLC (DDDD.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -896.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $16.66.