What is DCN.SW's Intrinsic value?

Datacolor AG (DCN.SW) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 24, 2025, Datacolor AG's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $873.86 to $1047.46 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $1029.78 +37.3%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $945.17 +26.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $972.54 +29.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1047.46 +39.7%
Earnings Power Value $873.86 +16.5%

Is Datacolor AG (DCN.SW) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $750.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Datacolor AG's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.0% 1.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.76 0.89
Cost of equity 4.9% 7.4%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 7.1% 11.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 1 1
After-tax WACC 4.7% 5.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 5.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $93 (FY09-2023) to $141 (FY09-2033)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 11%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $1,128 $165M 82.1%
10-Year Growth $1,229 $182M 67.8%
5-Year EBITDA $783 $110M 73.1%
10-Year EBITDA $935 $134M 56.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 32.1%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 6.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $972.54 (29.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.4% (Low) to 4.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $684 to $1,817
  • Selected fair value: $1047.46 (39.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $8M
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.9% - 4.7%
Enterprise Value $135M - $168M
Net Debt $(16)M
Equity Value $151M - $184M
Outstanding Shares 0M
Fair Value $939 - $1,147
Selected Fair Value $873.86

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $121M
Enterprise Value $107M
Trailing P/E 13.24
Forward P/E 13.31
Trailing EV/EBITDA 8.90
Current Dividend Yield 242.18%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 8.96%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.87

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $308.93
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $236.29
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $194.51
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $157.12
Earnings Power Value 10% $87.39
Weighted Average 100% $984.24

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Datacolor AG's weighted average intrinsic value is $984.24, which is approximately 31.2% above the current market price of $750.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 11% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 8.96%

Given these factors, we believe Datacolor AG is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.