As of May 23, 2025, Docebo Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $8.44 to $55.41 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $55.41 | +53.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $32.88 | -9.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $36.71 | +1.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $25.70 | -29.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $8.44 | -76.7% |
Is Docebo Inc (DCBO.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $36.21, the stock appears to be fairly valued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Docebo Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.83 | 0.97 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 10.1% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 7.7% | 11.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.4% | 10.1% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $24 | $616M | 82.8% |
| 10-Year Growth | $40 | $1,099M | 72.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $33 | $903M | 88.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $48 | $1,339M | 77.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $8M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.1% - 7.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $76M - $105M |
| Net Debt | $(91)M |
| Equity Value | $167M - $195M |
| Outstanding Shares | 30M |
| Fair Value | $6 - $7 |
| Selected Fair Value | $8.44 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1086M |
| Enterprise Value | $960M |
| Trailing P/E | 33.76 |
| Forward P/E | 29.39 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 21.50 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $16.62 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $8.22 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $7.34 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.85 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.84 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $36.88 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Docebo Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $36.88, which is approximately 1.9% above the current market price of $36.21.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Docebo Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.