As of May 29, 2025, Dixons Carphone PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $948.39 per share. With the current market price at $98.40, this represents a potential upside of 1128.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $948.39 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 863.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1128.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10344 million in 05-2021 to $14583 million by 05-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2021 | 10344 | 2% |
| 05-2022 | 10904 | 5% |
| 05-2023 | 11521 | 6% |
| 05-2024 | 11761 | 2% |
| 05-2025 | 12360 | 5% |
| 05-2026 | 12670 | 3% |
| 05-2027 | 12924 | 2% |
| 05-2028 | 13182 | 2% |
| 05-2029 | 14016 | 6% |
| 05-2030 | 14297 | 2% |
| 05-2031 | 14583 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 05-2021 to 7% by 05-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 05-2021 | 12 | 0% |
| 05-2022 | 173 | 2% |
| 05-2023 | 332 | 3% |
| 05-2024 | 489 | 4% |
| 05-2025 | 669 | 5% |
| 05-2026 | 840 | 7% |
| 05-2027 | 857 | 7% |
| 05-2028 | 874 | 7% |
| 05-2029 | 930 | 7% |
| 05-2030 | 948 | 7% |
| 05-2031 | 967 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $182 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 05-2022 | 172 |
| 05-2023 | 175 |
| 05-2024 | 183 |
| 05-2025 | 188 |
| 05-2026 | 208 |
| 05-2027 | 215 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 29 |
| Days Inventory | 48 |
| Days Payables | 61 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 477 | 43 | 192 | 190 | 52 |
| 2023 | 685 | 83 | 202 | (2) | 401 |
| 2024 | 891 | 123 | 207 | (17) | 578 |
| 2025 | 1126 | 168 | 217 | 71 | 670 |
| 2026 | 1364 | 211 | 223 | 7 | 923 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 948.39 | 863.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | 1128.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 371.81 | 277.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 612.61 | 522.6% |
Is Dixons Carphone PLC (DC.L) a buy or a sell? Dixons Carphone PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Dixons Carphone PLC (DC.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1128.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $98.40.