As of May 29, 2025, Diebold Nixdorf Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $42.00 to $111.74 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $111.74 | +130.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $102.95 | +112.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $42.00 | -13.2% |
| Earnings Power Value | $48.33 | -0.1% |
Is Diebold Nixdorf Inc (DBD) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $48.40, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Diebold Nixdorf Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| Cost of equity | 9.0% | 12.4% |
| Cost of debt | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| Tax rate | 22.5% | 42.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.2% | 9.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $103 | $4,526M | 77.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $112 | $4,856M | 58.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $56 | $2,773M | 62.8% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $75 | $3,489M | 41.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $222M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.9% - 8.2% |
| Enterprise Value | $2,238M - $2,702M |
| Net Debt | $652M |
| Equity Value | $1,587M - $2,051M |
| Outstanding Shares | 38M |
| Fair Value | $42 - $54 |
| Selected Fair Value | $48.33 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1821M |
| Enterprise Value | $2473M |
| Trailing P/E | 0.00 |
| Forward P/E | 26.27 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -100.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.53 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 35% | $33.52 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 29% | $25.74 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 24% | $8.40 |
| Earnings Power Value | 12% | $4.83 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $85.29 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Diebold Nixdorf Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $85.29, which is approximately 76.2% above the current market price of $48.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Diebold Nixdorf Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.