As of July 10, 2025, DoorDash Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $223.70 per share. With the current market price at $246.06, this represents a potential upside of -9.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $109.52 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $223.70 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -55.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -9.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.0% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $10722 million in 12-2024 to $39506 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 10722 | 24% |
| 12-2025 | 12936 | 21% |
| 12-2026 | 15361 | 19% |
| 12-2027 | 18360 | 20% |
| 12-2028 | 20794 | 13% |
| 12-2029 | 24042 | 16% |
| 12-2030 | 26928 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 30336 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 33802 | 11% |
| 12-2033 | 36716 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 39506 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 1% in 12-2024 to 15% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 117 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 511 | 4% |
| 12-2026 | 976 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 1585 | 9% |
| 12-2028 | 2245 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 3091 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 3567 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 4136 | 14% |
| 12-2032 | 4738 | 14% |
| 12-2033 | 5286 | 14% |
| 12-2034 | 5836 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $279 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 364 |
| 12-2026 | 454 |
| 12-2027 | 550 |
| 12-2028 | 672 |
| 12-2029 | 821 |
| 12-2030 | 947 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 23 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 18 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 484 | 9 | 436 | 72 | (32) |
| 2026 | 1167 | 22 | 690 | 114 | 341 |
| 2027 | 1830 | 36 | 824 | 149 | 821 |
| 2028 | 2582 | 51 | 933 | 121 | 1476 |
| 2029 | 3536 | 70 | 1079 | 167 | 2220 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 109.52 | -55.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 223.70 | -9.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 79.33 | -67.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 143.65 | -41.6% |
Is DoorDash Inc (DASH) a buy or a sell? DoorDash Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, DoorDash Inc (DASH) appears to be fairly valued with upside potential of -9.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold at the current market price of $246.06.